London Junto-"The Dragon Awakes: Investing in Today's China." October 5th, Lansdowne Club.

We’ve assembled a terrific panel for the October Junto on Wednesday, October 5th at the Lansdowne Club. 6:30 PM for 7:00 PM.

As with our previous three events, the London Junto is co-sponsoring this panel with the Harvard Business Forum. The debate will followed by a dinner with the three panelists and attended by a core group of about 15 attendees.

I’ve focused on attracting a wide range of viewpoints and perspectives on this compelling and controversial topic: Dr. Philippa Malmgren, former advisor on China and financial markets to the current White House; Andrew Leung, a distinguished former Hong Kong Chinese administrator and diplomat (and regular Junto attendee), and Tim Clissold, an investor in China and author of the highly acclaimed “Mr. China,” an Economist Book of the Year.

I felt that investment in China would be a particularly relevant topic given the coverage the rise of China is attracting in the popular media. During the Cold War, it was the Soviet Union; during the 1980s it was Japan; and today it is China, it seems, who are destined to take over the world.

The immediate fillip for the topic was the cover story of the August 1st edition of Fortune Magazine, entitled “America: The 97 lb. Weakling.” The cover portrayed Uncle Sam as the skinny wimp on a beach being beat up by a brainy and muscular, 180 lb. Chinese bully. (“I’d smash your face-only you’re so skinny you might dry up and blow away”).

Since stories like this tend to make it on the cover of magazines precisely at market tops, I promptly shorted the Chinese stock index-reminding myself how much money I could have made had I done the same with Japan 15 years ago.

My analysis was rather unconventional: I adjusted the cartoon figures’ weights for the actual size of both the Chinese and US economies. My 8th grade algebra told me that if, in fact, Uncle Sam weighed 97 lbs., then China would weigh about 13lbs. Put another way, based on nominal GDP (granted, not PPP adjusted), the economy of China, with its population of 1.25 billion, is roughly the size of California, with 35 million inhabitants.

Conclusion: yes, the 13lb pre-toddler may yet grow into the strapping, muscular young (Chinese) man as depicted on the cover of Fortune magazine. But it's unlikely to happen tomorrow...

I also recognize that this analysis is more rhetorical and facile than one borne out of genuine insight. So I wanted to explore the China phenomenon more deeply.

I initially wanted to invite a “China Bull”, a “China Bear”, and someone who has actually had experience in running a business in China. Needless to say, categories of “bull” and “bear” proved to be too black and white (“Manichean”?) for any of our China experts.

But VERY broadly (and I stand ready to be corrected for any unintentional misrepresentations), Dr. Philippa Malmgren, has agreed to the moniker “China Bear,”Andrew Leung, has agreed to be a “China Bull”-albeit a moderate one. And Tim Clissold-is a perhaps surprising bull, given his experiences as an investor in China -a story he hilariously recounts in his book “Mr. China.” Tim will also have a few copies of his book on hand and can dedicate personally.

I hope you can attend for what should be a terrific evening with some outstanding presentation and debate.